The best way to predict the future is to create it.
Abraham Lincoln said the best way to predict the future is to create the future. In the last edition, I used the story of Captain Kirk rigging the Kobayashi Maru test to win the no-win scenario. He ensured his win by creating the conditions for him to win. Companies can do the same by transforming data into insight, insight into foresight, and foresight into innovation.
Once the strategy is in place and in the execution phase, you must monitor the environment and keep your eye on the future to know when you need to pivot or double down. This is called Strategic Foresight.
This is my favorite part of strategy.
Collecting data for data’s sake is wasteful. But data that you can turn into innovation is valuable.
Strategic foresight explained
How to apply strategic foresight
It can’t be used to predict the future
It’s not a one-time event
Examples of who does it well and who bombed
Methods to develop the skill of strategic foresight
Strategic Foresight transforms information into innovation. 🎯
Strategic foresight is the anticipation of possible futures and exploring how current trends, events, and decisions shape those futures. It involves a systematic approach to looking beyond short-term planning horizons to consider the broader context and forces that could impact an organization, industry, or society over time.
Strategic foresight isn’t just for corporations; it can be applied in multiple ways. 👁️🗨️
When done well and consistently, strategic foresight enables organizations to reasonably see what’s coming and prepare. It’s not just for business, however. Strategic foresight can be used in many ways.
Business strategy: used to develop new products and services, enter new markets, and improve operational efficiency.
Public policy: develop evidence-based policies that address emerging challenges and opportunities.
Investment strategy: identify investment opportunities that are likely to generate high returns.
Personal development: craft a career plan, set goals, and make better life decisions.
Unfortunately, strategic foresight isn’t about predicting the future. 🔮 Here’s what it can do.
Despite Yoda telling Luke Skywalker he couldn’t predict the future, he jetted off to save his friends. (Sorry if you’ve never seen Star Wars). Luke was trying to use the force to predict the future, while Yoda was using the force to provide insight into what might happen. Luke ends up losing his hand in the process.
Improved decision-making: helps make better decisions by giving them a better understanding of the potential impact of trends.
Increased resilience: increases resilience to change by identifying and preparing for potential risks and challenges.
Improved innovation: capture innovation by identifying emerging trends and opportunities.
Competitive advantage: gain competitive advantage by staying ahead of the curve and developing new products and services that meet the needs of the future.
💡 Don’t be Luke.
You need to apply a consistent, systematic approach to see possible futures. ⚙️
Strategic foresight isn’t a one-time thing. During my time leading global strategic market insights for a Fortune 100 company, my team and I looked at trends every month and reviewed information daily. The purpose is to scan the environment for near-term possibilities and then piece it together to provide an idea of long-term possibilities.
It takes discipline.
Audit analytics: examine and validate or invalidate commonly held assumptions. Don’t assume what you think is right is right.
Find the signals in the noise: examine trends and prioritize by probability and impact intensity. Not all information is good information.
Pattern capture: determine which trends to proactively address. Trends with high impact and high probability should be on the list.
Ideation and planning: develop multiple scenarios, implications, and required resources. Do war-gaming to think through risks and mitigations.
Operational design: craft strategy and tactics to leverage change for competitive advantage. What can be implemented today to gain ground tomorrow?
Who does it well and not so well? 👍🏽👎🏽
✅Google: Google is known for its innovative culture and ability to spot emerging trends. One example of Google's strategic foresight is its investment in mining patient data to drive predictive medicine. Google Health has hundreds of ongoing partnerships and studies to gain insight from patient data.
❌Nokia: Nokia was once the world leader in mobile phone manufacturing, but it was slow to react to the rise of smartphones. As a result, it lost market share to Apple and Samsung.
❌❌Blockbuster: Need I say more? They thought streaming was a fad, and people enjoyed leaving their homes to fight over DVDs at a brick-and-mortar store. They literally laughed Netflix out of the room. 🙄
✅Apple: Steve Jobs saw a world where people would want access to all the information in the palm of their hands and carry their music library in their pockets. What started as an iPod became the iPhone.
The good news is you can develop strategic foresight by expanding your mind. 💪🏽🧠
You might be asking yourself how you can develop this skill set. For me, it comes somewhat naturally. I’m always looking for dots to connect. That’s how it starts. The more information you expose yourself to, the greater your ability to connect the dots.
Read This 👇🏽
Steve Jobs also said:
Creativity is just connecting things. When you ask creative people how they did something, they feel a little guilty because they didn’t really do it, they just saw something. It seemed obvious to them after a while. That’s because they were able to connect experiences they’ve had and synthesize new things.
And the reason they were able to do that was that they’ve had more experiences or they have thought more about their experiences than other people.
Unfortunately, that’s too rare a commodity. A lot of people in our industry haven’t had very diverse experiences. So they don’t have enough dots to connect, and they end up with very linear solutions without a broad perspective on the problem.
The broader one’s understanding of the human experience, the better design we will have.
Read widely: read books and articles about the future and follow thought leaders in strategic foresight or futurists.
Attend conferences and workshops: attend conferences and workshops on topics that interest you and network (sorry, introverts).
Practice scenario planning: scenario planning is a powerful tool for strategic foresight. Several different scenario planning methods are available. Find one that works best for you.
Develop your critical thinking skills: strategic foresight requires critical thinking skills to evaluate different scenarios and make informed decisions.
Volunteer with startups: helping a new business think through its development, launch plans, etc., will force you to ask more questions and do environmental scanning.
Be curious: ask to spend time with someone who doesn’t do what you do and see what you can learn. Hospitals learned to streamline processes and reduce surgical errors by working with airline pilots.
TL;DR — Strategic foresight is not about being a fortune teller but how to read the tea leaves and capitalize on change.
Strategic foresight is mastering the art of understanding the forces shaping the future and developing strategies to respond to them.
It is not a one-time event. It is an ongoing process that requires continuous monitoring of the environment and adaptation to change.
Strategic foresight is not just for large organizations. It can be used for startups, midsize companies, schools, or any organization that needs to consider the future…i.e., all of them.
Tool of the Month: Tango
Create a how-to guide in minutes, FREE! 🤯
Stop taking and pasting screenshots in your documents! This tool is great if you are constantly creating how-to documentation for training. Teachers and trainers will probably ❤️ this one. Tango allows you to record the process step-by-step and place it neatly into a document for distribution.
Sneak Peek 🕵🏽
November: Building High-Performing Leaders and Everyday Warriors
December: My tech stack revealed and then some 😏
Leadership Video Series: Managing a multi-generational team successfully
When you’re ready to work with me, visit me at hvg.llc.
Executive Coaching
Fractional Leader/Interim Professional
Business Consulting or Coaching
